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Arrow6
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  Quote Arrow6 Replybullet Topic: Low Snow/Seasonal Predictions
    Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 4:02pm
Pretty sure there are some hydrologists and/or people that have seen snow conditions like 2014/15 before (Not me).

Whats the season look like for whitewater folks this year? In terms of when specific rivers can be expected to run. Completely non-attribution in terms of predictions.
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  Quote JoesKayak Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 4:26pm
This isn't our first poor snowpack year around here. Really bad ones tend to come once every 10 years or so. If I'm remembering right, 2002 was pretty bad and so was 1992. This year is just as bad or worse as far as snowpack as those years according to my recollections.


Simply put, It's gonna suck. Boat early and often while you can and hope we get a cold wet spring.

North Cascade rivers generally fare a bit better than southern cascade rivers, as those mountains tend a bit higher and get bigger snowpack. Sauk, NF Nooksack, Casdade may be go to rivers earlier in the season than usual. The Skagit will provide reliable levels all summer because of the dam, and yeah it's not the most exciting run around, but it's at least gonna have water.

The Wenatchee probably won't have any really good high levels this season and if it does it will because we get an early hot spell and then it will be over quick. If you're looking to do some playboating on the Wenatchee, be thinking about May, not June... By the time mid-June rolls around I'd guess the play run will be getting quite low, but could mean a good Tumwater season. Consider a similar story for most east side rivers... Methow, Entiat, Cle Elum, Icicle, Naches, etc.... all these will run lower than usual and probably peter out about a month earlier than average.



The Skykomish will stay runable into the summer as long as you don't mind running it at low low levels... in other low snowpack years it's been boated down to its record minimum flows of around 350 cfs.

MF Snoqualmie... well, the road is out anyway, but wihtout rain you can probably forget about it after Memorial day this year... and that will be the case for most rivers that have a similar or lower drainage basin in the central to southern cascades. Late spring will be like winter boating... hope for rain and run the spikes.

In general, as you'll see this is a common theme... look to do things earlier than normal. Late summer creeky runs will probably be better to hit in late spring or early summer.

By late summer... get your passport ready. Probably will be time to go see what's running in Canada or take up hiking or golf.

All this based on more years of boating in Washington and pouring over level data than I care to admit.




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  Quote Arrow6 Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 5:50pm
JoesKayak, great post. Pretty much exactly the intel I was looking for.
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  Quote jP Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 6:05pm
Originally posted by JoesKayak

Boat early and often while you can and hope we get a cold wet spring.



Thats the take away right there. But Joe's entire analysis should be absorbed by those wanting to gleen more detail. Many "hardshell kayakers" might tend to discount the beta of an IK paddler, but ya gotta understand that Joe is part of Washington's "IK Jedi" class. The man has been around. I'm glad to agree with Joe's prognosis because it confirms my own, while saving me lots of typing!

Getting back to the "boat early" statement, March has been a satisfying time for some moderate Icicle and Tumwater. I would not wait for May though. April. Focus on some cooper laps maybe in April. Yup. Good summer to ply the Tumwaters....


Edited by jP - 02 Apr 2015 at 6:07pm
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  Quote jP Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 6:17pm

Me I am contemplating a Saltwater Sabbatical. Certainly by early summer. I may shelve my whitewater kayak entirely, stroke hard out on the undulating salt, and come back into the fall rains with a Crushing Stroke of Iron Fist...

Who's got a Saltyak or access to one? I got my 17' Tempest and its tired of being neglected. Anyway consider breaking out of your routine. Come explore some wide expanses...where you can paddle in Any Direction.

fu*kin ocean has plenty of water, and plenty of current and whitewater too if you bring a helmet and know how to seek it out. Sea Kayaking is also one of the best compliments to your whitewater game. Forward Stroke Forward Stroke Forward Stroke. The most underestimated and least understood aspect of whitewater kayaking, yet the most rooted fundemental...(Ironic)

Does the thought of running the raft line down Boulder Drop at 8k make you squeamish? Depending on one's skill/experience it justifiably could. One could say "don't worry , it wont even reach 8 K THIS YEAR". On the other hand, if a class III paddler were to invest in some quality sea kayaking, he or she might find their comfort zone elevated enough that the Mercy Chute at 10k might seem more obtainable. The sky at higher water starts feeling Oceanic. So some sloshing around out on the OP coast with some swell is bound to up your game.
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  Quote jP Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 6:25pm
Other ways to spice up an otherwise ho hum low water year could be to spend more time coaching and helping your friends who may be behind your own progression. This advice is quite general and aimed at anyone interested.

Have you turned someone onto this sport? If so maybe you can free up more time to run some more mellow sh*t and help someone with less experience than you up their game. Dig it? Teaching others is a great way to tune up your own game in subtle ways you might not expect. But be SMART about it. You got a strong responsibility To Look Out For Their Safety and not get them injured, traumatized, or worse.

The other thing worth pointing out is that kayakers and IK paddlers are better off than rafters and raft guides. Tons More options. And the IK is considered by some to be the ultimate low water craft.

Edited by jP - 02 Apr 2015 at 6:28pm
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  Quote stevej Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 7:35pm
All great points jP!

I've been enjoying the whitewater on the ocean a lot longer than I've been paddling it on the river. In fact, headed out to Cape Disappointment on Sunday to do just that. Wenatchee play boating season may be short, but there will always be fantastic surf on the coast, and world class standing waves at places like Skook and Okisollo. If you really want to learn boat control, try surfing a 16+ ft long boat!

Hit me up if you want to know more about places to go and conditions to look for to really experience all the Sea has to offer!
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  Quote megspk Replybullet Posted: 02 Apr 2015 at 10:06pm
Thanks for all the low water info!


JP!! I am totally interested in boating with you sometime soon! I am definitely interested in getting out on a sea kayaking trip with you this summer also. I'm actually doing a trip at the beginning of May and would like to do some sea kayaking/camping adventures this summer.


I myself don't have a sea yak, but I'm looking. I really have no idea what to look for.....advice anyone? A durable sea kayak, not too heavy, but I can't afford the lightest, comfy seat/outfitting, dry storage so I can camp too!

stevej: It would be great to know of some "must see" places to check out. I'd like to get some photography in while I'm at it :)
“A strong person and a waterfall always channel their own path.” -Unknown

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  Quote Ellingferd Replybullet Posted: 06 Apr 2015 at 2:53pm
Given that central Puget is at 6 and central Columbia is at 37 I would imagine you wont see the Wenatchee over 10 k and, if you do, there will be very little water even sooner in that drainage. Probably below 5k by the end of may unless there is some sort of recharge. Whistler will be done by late June/first part of July I imagine. There are the releases on the Ashlu though. Probably a good time to buy a mountain bike or go JP's route. Last time it was this bad was 2005 and the highest the Wenatchee got was 6k in late april I believe. Ohane and all that stuff is below 30 percent as well, so spring rain is likely when that will go, and not after. Yikes!

Edited by Ellingferd - 06 Apr 2015 at 2:54pm
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  Quote Ellingferd Replybullet Posted: 06 Apr 2015 at 2:55pm
Oh yeah, and skook!
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  Quote jP Replybullet Posted: 08 Apr 2015 at 9:40pm
Yo Stevej my man!!
I might hit ya w/ a PM. I need some Saltwater bros...
I really dig the Olympic Coast for its class IV-V sea kayaking potential...

Megan- I like a 17' or 18' boat for storage and long range travel. Lots of times they've recommended 16' or shorter boats for women, but I'm not sure that ain't just classic "boyz club" sexism at work. I know Freya Hoffmeister don't paddle no wimpy short boat-- she is a straight up bad ass.

Shorter boats are prefered for surfing, rock gardening, and general playboating, but its not like I work for Amazon or sone bullsh*t. I can only afford one SaltYak.
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  Quote megspk Replybullet Posted: 09 Apr 2015 at 3:09pm
JP and Steve-
Been looking into the "British Style" kayaks....read some articles online and whatnot.  Sounds like the British boats will help improve your whitewater skills because they require more precise paddling and proper hip technique.  You get more rocker to drive over things, but then the boats have a tendency to be slower, although fun to boat.  I definately want to gain
I'm thinking plastic vs other materials in the interest of cost and durability.
I want a boat that will have enough room to camp with it, but I'm thinking the sea kayak will have more room than say a Stomper 80 or Zen 65 which I have self supported in before.  I'm not afraid of length.  I figure if I want to surf, I can take out one of my whitewater boats too :)
I just googled Freya and that lady has some amazing arms!
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  Quote stevej Replybullet Posted: 09 Apr 2015 at 7:30pm
Anytime jP! I've been getting my surf kayak out to the coast about once a week lately. I'll probably spend a three day weekend on the coast somewhere in mid-April and again in mid-May. All are welcome.

Edited by stevej - 09 Apr 2015 at 7:30pm
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  Quote stevej Replybullet Posted: 09 Apr 2015 at 7:50pm
Meg,

British boats are probably going to be a style that interests you most. While the lines between styles (British, North American, etc) have started to blur considerably over the years, Brit boats still tend to have more rocker and no rudder. Now, rocker in a sea kayak translates to maneuverability. Doesn't really have anything to do with driving over things...that's all a function of water reading skill and timing. A drawback to a lot of rocker is tracking and efficiency. Do you want a boat to play and you'll deal with it being a bit slower or do you want to make miles? I find that I do a lot more playing than I do expeditioning. My two sea boats are a P&H Aries 155 and a P&H Hammer. The Aries is my all around boat. It surfs fantastic, I can take it anywhere, it can hold gear for a weekend trip, but at 15'5", not the fastest boat.

When I paddled 300 miles down the West Coast of Vancouver Island I used an NDK Explorer. Plenty of room in the boat for 14 days self support.

The Hammer is pretty much a WW boat for the ocean. You can look up video on it if you're curious. It's been paddled on everything from coastal rock gardens to self-support Grand Canyon trips to the Green River Narrows in NC. Not a boat you take camping in the San Juan's though....SLOW!

Freya paddled an Epic 18x Sport around Australia and half of South America. She's finishing that trip in a Point 65 boat called the "Freya".
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